Illicit Tobacco Trade Index

Countries are facing the blight of illicit tobacco trade (ITT). In 2017, about 11.6% of the overall global cigarette market were considered illicit with low and middle-income countries were more at risk of illicit trade compared to high income countries (Euromonitor International, 2019). ITT is both a global health and economic problem. It does not only increase access to harmful tobacco products especially among children and poor population, but also causes significant losses in government revenues.

The scale of ITT in a particular country is driven by different demand and supply-side factors. The former refers to preference of smokers for cheaper or specific tobacco produce. While the latter refers to activities of illegal and legal enterprises to increase profit, sales, and market shares exacerbated by the presence of corruption and organized crime, and weak government institutions (OECD, 2008). The multi-dimensional nature of ITT prompts governments to measure holistically the enabling factors to help in designing appropriate policy responses.

We constructed an ITT index, which measures the enabling factors of ITT in 160 economies. It is important to note that the index does not score a country’s effectiveness in combating illicit tobacco trade. Rather, the index examines their structural and institutional capability to combat ITT. The higher the ITT score (that is, 0=lowest; 1=highest) the less vulnerable to illicit tobacco trade.

It focuses on general governance, tobacco policies and systems and effectiveness of governance that contribute to the political and regulatory environment that reflects the country’s potential to address different kinds of illicit tobacco trade.

Methodology